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నైరూప్య

Determinants of Diarrhea among Children under Age Five Using Generalized Linear Model with Bayesian Approach: The Case of Kuyu General Hospital, Oromia Region, Ethiopia

Bizunesh Kefale*, Dechasa Bedada, Yasin Negash, Gizachew Gobebo

Background: Diarrhea is a major health problem and the most common cause of illness and the second leading cause of child death in the world. Globally, an estimated 2 billion cases of diarrheal disease occur each year, and 1.9 million children under the age of 5 years, mostly in developing countries, die from diarrhea. The burden diarrhea is greatest in the developing world including Ethiopia.

Objective: This study was conducted to identify the influential determinants of diarrhea disease among children under age five in Kuyu General Hospital, North Shoa Zone, Oromia Region, Ethiopia.

Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted on under-five children who were hospitalized with diarrhea at Kuyu General Hospital from September 2015 up to August 2018. A total of 612 under five children were included in the study. The statistical methods of data analysis used were Bayesian generalized linear model and Bayesian semi-parametric regression models and inference was made based on penalized likelihood.

Results: Among 612, under five children included in this study, 503 (82.2%) of them had diarrhea. The semi- parametric regression model with Bayesian approach was found to be the best model to fit the data. The study revealed that children who reside in rural areas, children have low weight-for height, stunting children, children who were not ever vaccinated, children who were not breastfed, children from households with no toilet facility and children from mothers who use unprotected source of drinking water were found to be significantly associated with increased risk childhood diarrhea.

Conclusion: Bayesian semi parametric regression model fitted the data better than the others. The study suggests supply of improved drinking water, expanded program on vaccination, and initiation to adopt the culture of breastfeeding their children to reduce the risk of diarrhea among under-five children in the study area.